Research
Journal Articles
Betz, Timm, Paul Binder, and Jonas Geus (2026): Global Markets and Local Representation. British Journal of Political Science 56:e26 (Paper, Replication Code).
Abstract
How do global market pressures affect domestic politics? A well-established literature documents that import competition fuels the rise of populist leaders and right-wing parties. We shift attention to a thus far unexplored consequence: pressures from global markets move voters toward candidates with local ties. These effects are most pronounced where import pressures raise the salience of pre-existing local identities, and where import pressures hit key industries in local economic clusters, creating spillovers throughout the community. We offer evidence from elections to the U.S. House of Representatives from 2002 to 2016, focusing on candidates' place of birth as expression of local ties. Our results provide a novel perspective on how economic globalization affects politics: local ties are a key dimension of descriptive representation, translating the place-based economic consequences of globalization into politics. Moreover, we highlight how indirect exposure to global markets through spillovers shapes the political response to globalization.
Oliver Pamp, Andreas Mehltretter, Paul Binder, and Paul W. Thurner (2024): Introducing the Rebels’ Armament Dataset (RAD): Empirical Evidence on Rebel Military Capabilities. Journal of Conflict Resolution 69(7-8): 1461-1489 (Paper, Replication Code).
Abstract
There is a scarcity of systematic data regarding the military equipment of rebel groups engaged in intrastate conflicts. This empirical gap has impeded the rigorous evaluation of (formal) theories concerning militarized interactions between governments and rebel groups. To address this deficiency, we have developed the Rebels' Armament Dataset (RAD). This dataset provides detailed information on the military arsenals of 270 groups over the period from 1989 to 2020, categorizing 15 different types of small arms, light weapons, explosives, and major weapons. In this article, we introduce RAD, compare it with existing datasets, elucidate the data collection process, present an initial overview of the information contained in it, and apply the data to examine civilian suffering in civil wars. Although this dataset is merely an initial step that can be expanded as additional public information becomes available, RAD offers the first organized compilation of data on the armament levels of rebels.
Pamp, Oliver, Paul W. Thurner, Paul Binder, and Andreas Mehltretter (2024): Arming to fight: Rebel-government militarization and escalation of violence in civil wars. Conflict Management and Peace Science 42(4): 357-379 (Paper, Replication Code).
Abstract
Do more weapons in the hands of rebel groups escalate civil wars? We address this question using a recently published dataset on the armaments of 270 non-state actors. We provide a comprehensive overview of their arsenals and utilize this information in a dyadic analysis that also considers the effects of governments’ weapons stock. We show that better-armed rebel groups are involved in higher-intensity conflicts only if they receive no external support. Moreover, conventional warfare is related to higher casualty numbers and the impact of arms provision to governments is conditional on the relative military strength of the opposing rebels.
Working Papers
Geus, Jonas and Paul Binder (2026): Globalization and U.S. Presidential Campaign Rhetoric (Last presented at SPSA 2026).
Betz, Timm and Paul Binder (2026): Production Networks and Tariff Concessions in GATT Trade Negotiations (Last presented at SPSA 2026).
Binder, Paul, Fabian Haggerty, Lukas Rudoplph, and Paul W. Thurner (2026): Proximity to arms production facilities and citizens’ support for arms export policy: Evidence from the five largest weapon-producing democracies (Under Review).
Binder, Paul, Fabian Haggerty, and Cuichi N. Miess (2025): A Comment on ‘Political Responsiveness to Conflict Victims: Evidence from a Countrywide Audit Experiment in Colombia‘ (Working Paper).
Binder, Paul, Oliver Pamp, and Paul W. Thurner (2025): Do Arms Prolong Conflict? An Empirical Analysis of the Non-linear Effects of Weapon Stocks on the Duration of Civil Wars (Under Review).
Miess, Cuichi N., Paul Binder, and Paul W. Thurner (2024): External Civil War Interference: Reassessing the Transnational Dimension of Intrastate Violence (Working Paper).
Mehltretter, Andreas, Paul W. Thurner, Oliver Pamp and Paul Binder (2023): Rebels’ Armament Dataset (RAD) Codebook (Paper).